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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

However the latest field is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference winners declining and recent strugglers improving in unison. During an ordinary season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this wild and thrilling year, he's up against multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a normal season!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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